Admissions And Expulsions
Migration from developing countries: Selection, income elasticity, and Simpson's paradox
Michael Clemens & Mariapia Mendola
Journal of Development Economics, October 2024
Abstract:
The economic causes and effects of migration from developing countries depend on patterns of self-selection that are difficult to observe. We estimate the degree of migrant self-selection -- on both observed and unobserved determinants of income -- for 99 developing countries using nationally representative survey data on 653,613 people. In low-income countries, people actively preparing to emigrate have 14 percent higher incomes explained by observed traits such as schooling, and 12 percent higher incomes explained by unobserved traits. The simulated income elasticity of emigration is positive in the aggregate (+0.23) despite being negative in subpopulations, an instance of Simpson's paradox.
The Paradox of Sanctuary: How Punitive Exceptions Converge to Criminalize and Punish Latinos/as
Enrique Alvear Moreno
Law & Social Inquiry, forthcoming
Abstract:
Sanctuary cities define themselves as metropoles that refuse to share information, personnel, and facilities with federal immigration authorities to police immigrants. While research suggests that sanctuary cities contest the criminalization of migration, a growing literature depicts how these urban sanctuaries could, in practice, perpetuate hierarchies and exclusionary politics against noncitizens. Yet, most of these studies conceive of urban sanctuary as local policies designed to challenge federal power and, thus, fail to fully capture how sanctuary policies could actually rely on the criminalization of migration to govern cities' political problems. Drawing upon 1,900 pages of archival materials and 100 newspaper articles, this article takes the case of Chicago to study how and why the urban sanctuary expands immigrants' rights while reinforcing policing with punitive implications for Latino "undeserving" noncitizens. As a form of racialized governance, I argue that Chicago's sanctuary policies activate a set of punitive exceptions that -- in response to distinct political urgencies -- allow law and immigration enforcement to converge and control Latino undocumented workers, "criminals," and "gangs." This study not only challenges the premise that sanctuary cities necessarily resist federal power but also illustrates how they could strengthen the legitimacy of the state and racialized police power.
Changing the pace of the melting pot: The effects of immigration restrictions on immigrant assimilation
Jeff Chan
Journal of Comparative Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effects of restrictive immigration policies enacted in the US in 1921 and 1924 to explore the effects of immigration restrictions on recent immigrants using full-count US Census data and variation across national origins in the exclusionary policies. Immigrants more affected by the quotas were more likely to become naturalized citizens. Immigrants from countries that subsequently had migration reduced by the Acts were also more likely to marry someone born in the United States. The evidence in this paper, taken together, shows that the Immigrant Exclusion Act hastened the assimilation of already-landed immigrant men and impacted their short and long-run family outcomes.
The Impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act on the Economic Development of the Western U.S.
Joe Long et al.
NBER Working Paper, October 2024
Abstract:
This paper investigates the economic consequences of the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act, which banned immigration from China to the United States. The Act reduced the number of Chinese workers of all skill levels residing in the U.S. It also reduced the labor supply and the quality of jobs held by white and U.S.-born workers, the intended beneficiaries of the Act, and reduced manufacturing output. The results suggest that the Chinese Exclusion Act slowed economic growth in western states until at least 1940.
Too Cold to Venture There? January Temperature and Immigrant Self-Employment Across the United States
Jun Yeong Lee & John Winters
Economic Development Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Immigrants in the United States have higher self-employment rates than native-born Americans. However, immigrant self-employment rates vary considerably across areas of the country. The authors examine the percentage of immigrant workers in local areas who are self-employed (i.e., the self-employment rate for the foreign born). Areas with colder winter temperatures have especially low self-employment rates among their immigrant populations compared to warmer areas. The relationship between winter temperature and immigrant self-employment persists after controlling for numerous individual and local area characteristics. The relationship holds for numerous subsamples of immigrants but is strongest for immigrants arriving to the United States as adults. Child immigrants and native-born Americans exhibit a weaker relationship, possibly because of previous exposure and attachment to particular locations chosen by their parents that constrain the migration responses of potential entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurial immigrants arriving to the country as adults appear especially footloose and particularly responsive to January temperatures in their location decisions.
Migrants from a Different Shore: Earnings and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants from China in the United States
Carl Lin, Tony Fang & Mei Hsu
Journal of Labor Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using data from 1980, 1990, and 2000 U.S. censuses, as well as the 2010 and 2019 American Community Surveys and the 1993-2019 National Survey of College Graduates, we investigate the performance of Chinese immigrants in the U.S. labor market over the past 40 years since China initiated its economic reforms and open-door policy in 1978. The results indicate that by 1990, Chinese immigrants' earnings surpassed those of immigrants from other countries, and by 2010, they exceeded the earnings of U.S.-born workers. Our Oaxaca-Blinder and Quantile decomposition analyses suggest that a significant portion of the earnings advantage held by Chinese immigrants, compared to other immigrant groups and U.S.-born workers over time, can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics, with education being the most crucial factor, both at the mean and across the earnings distribution. By employing national surveys that provide data on college graduates, we demonstrate that attaining the highest degree earned in the U.S. is associated with higher earnings for Chinese immigrants compared to all other immigrants. Furthermore, the difference in returns to U.S.-earned highest degrees can account for this earnings advantage.
White Racial Identity and Preferences for (Non) White Immigrants in the United States
David Macdonald
American Politics Research, November 2024, Pages 677-688
Abstract:
Fueled by decades of immigration, the United States is on a path to becoming a "majority-minority" nation, in which non-Hispanic Whites no longer represent a majority of the population. Such demographic changes have prompted a reexamination of White Americans' racial attitudes, particularly regarding whether a politically consequential sense of racial in-group solidarity or "White identity" has emerged. Recent work shows that such a White identity has indeed emerged and that it is powerfully linked with opposition to immigration. However, we know little about whether the relationship between White identity and immigration support varies across groups. Specifically, it is not clear whether White identity is uniquely "activated" by Latino/Hispanic immigrants, a large and fast-growing minority group, and (2) how White identity is linked to support for allowing immigration from Europe, a region of the world that is predominantly White. I test this using panel data from the 2016-2018 Voter Study Group (VSG) survey. I find that White identity is associated, to an approximately equal degree, with opposition to immigration from: Africa, China, India, Mexico/Latin America, and the Middle East, but that White identity is not significantly associated with support for increased immigration from Europe. Overall, these findings help us to better understand the nature of American public opinion toward immigration and the political consequences of White racial identity in a changing America.
Who decides who gets in? Diplomats, bureaucrats, and visa issuance
David Lindsey
Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does resident diplomacy influence international outcomes? Theoretically, I argue that resident diplomats tend to adopt uniquely cooperative stances toward their hosts. I test this expectation using a natural experiment involving British visa issuance. Starting in 2007, the UK transferred visa decision making from local diplomatic posts to centralized hubs, located either at third country diplomatic posts or domestically. I study this rollout to credibly estimate the causal effects of visa adjudication by local posts. I find that resident diplomats implement a much more lenient visa policy -- transferring adjudication to an outside hub reduces issuance by about fifteen percent. There is a robust difference between the behavior of local and third-country posts, showing that this cooperative effect of diplomacy is relationship-specific.