Big Calls
The effect of job loss on risky financial decision-making
Samuel Hirshman et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 7 January 2025
Abstract:
Job loss is a common and disruptive life event. It is known to have numerous long-term negative effects on financial, health, and social outcomes. While the negative effects of becoming unemployed on health and well-being are well understood, the influence of job loss on financial decisions has received little attention. Across a large-scale survey (N=37,854), spending data from a bank (N=404,470), and two online experiments (total N=1,403), we find that job loss increases financial risk-taking. First, in survey data, job loss is associated with elevated levels of self-reported financial risk-taking and lottery ticket purchases. Next, using administrative data from a large bank, we find consistent causal evidence of the influence of job loss on gambling spending. Although total spending decreases after job loss, gambling spending is less affected than our control categories. Finally, we turn to two incentive-compatible manipulations of job loss operationalized in a lab setting. We find that this experimental manipulation increases the take-up of financial risks. The current finding that job loss increases financial risk-taking could accentuate long-term negative financial effects of job loss.
Digital Lyrebirds: Experimental Evidence That Voice-Based Deep Fakes Influence Trust
Scott Schanke, Gordon Burtch & Gautam Ray
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
We consider the pairing of audio chatbot technologies with voice-based deep fakes, that is, voice clones, examining the potential of this combination to induce consumer trust. We report on a set of controlled experiments based on the investment game, evaluating how voice cloning and chatbot disclosure jointly affect participants’ trust, reflected by their willingness to play with an autonomous, AI-enabled partner. We observe evidence that voice-based agents garner significantly greater trust from subjects when imbued with a clone of the subject’s voice. Recognizing that these technologies present not only opportunities but also the potential for misuse, we further consider the moderating impact of AI disclosure, a recent regulatory proposal advocated by some policymakers. We find no evidence that AI disclosure attenuates the trust-inducing effect of voice clones. Finally, we explore underlying mechanisms and contextual moderators for the trust-inducing effects, with an eye toward informing future efforts to manage and regulate voice-cloning applications. We find that a voice clone’s effects operate, at least in part, by inducing a perception of homophily and that the effects are increasing in the clarity and quality of generated audio. Implications of these results for consumers, policymakers, and society are discussed.
Childhood poverty and its impact on financial decision making under threat: A preregistered replication of Griskevicius et al. (2011b)
Joe Gladstone, Meredith Lehman & Mallory Decker
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, forthcoming
Abstract:
We investigated the influence of childhood poverty on financial decision making under threat by replicating the findings of Griskevicius et al. (2011b), which found that individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds tend to make riskier financial decisions and prefer immediate over delayed gratification when exposed to mortality cues. Following an extension of life history theory to individual behaviors, the original research argued that these behaviors reflect a faster and riskier strategy to cope with survival threats. In a preregistered replication using the same procedures and instruments as the original study, we tested this hypothesis with a sample size 14.2 times larger than the original (1,010 vs. 71). We replicated the effect of mortality salience on risk-taking for people who experienced childhood poverty but with a substantially smaller effect size (η² = 0.004 vs. η² = 0.17 in the original). We failed to find any effect on time preferences in contrast to the original study’s medium effect size (η² = 0.046). Although our findings partially support the results of Griskevicius et al. (2011b) on poverty and financial decision making, the drastically reduced effect sizes challenge the practical significance of these findings. Our replication results underscore the importance of large sample studies in understanding the effects of childhood socioeconomic status on future life decisions. They also suggest that frameworks beyond life history theory may be needed to reliably capture such relationships.
Should Individuals Choose Their Own Incentives? Evidence from a Mindfulness Meditation Intervention
Andrej Woerner et al.
Management Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Traditionally, incentives to promote behavioral change are assigned rather than chosen. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically investigate the alternative approach of letting people choose their own incentives from a menu of increasingly challenging and rewarding options. When individuals are heterogeneous and have private information about their costs and benefits, we theoretically show that leaving them the choice of incentives can improve both adherence and welfare. We test the theoretical predictions in a field experiment based on daily meditation sessions. We randomly assign some participants to one of two incentive schemes and allow others to choose between the two schemes. As predicted, participants sort into schemes in (partial) agreement with the objectives of the policymaker. However, in contrast to our prediction, participants who could choose complete significantly fewer sessions than participants that were randomly assigned. Because the results are not driven by poor selection, we infer that letting people choose between incentive schemes may bring in psychological effects that discourage adherence.
Enhanced Creativity in Autism Is Due to Co-Occurring Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder
Emily Taylor et al.
Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
There has been longstanding speculation that enhanced creativity is associated with autism. Evidence for this association, however, is limited and derived from small-scale studies in nonclinical samples. Furthermore, nothing is known about autism-related creativity after accounting for general cognitive ability and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), that is, other factors known to predict creativity. Addressing these issues, we conducted preregistered comparisons of the creativity of autistic and nonautistic adults (N = 352), matched on age, sex, and general cognitive ability. We found clear evidence that there were no group differences on a divergent thinking creativity task. Autistic adults did self-report more real-world creative accomplishments and behaviors, but these differences did not hold after accounting for ADHD. We conclude that enhanced creativity, where observed in autistic people, is likely to be driven by co-occurring ADHD. The clinical and practical implications of these findings for strength-based approaches to psychopathology are discussed.
Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning
Ilan Price et al.
Nature, 2 January 2025, Pages 84-90
Abstract:
Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather to planning renewable energy use. Traditionally, weather forecasts have been based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), which relies on physics-based simulations of the atmosphere. Recent advances in machine learning (ML)-based weather prediction (MLWP) have produced ML-based models with less forecast error than single NWP simulations. However, these advances have focused primarily on single, deterministic forecasts that fail to represent uncertainty and estimate risk. Overall, MLWP has remained less accurate and reliable than state-of-the-art NWP ensemble forecasts. Here we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, ENS, the ensemble forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. GenCast is an ML weather prediction method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-h steps and 0.25° latitude–longitude resolution, for more than 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 min. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets we evaluated and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, in which crucial weather-dependent decisions are made more accurately and efficiently.
Cardio with Mr. Treadmill: How Anthropomorphizing the Means of Goal Pursuit Increases Motivation
Lili Wang & Maferima Touré-Tillery
Journal of Marketing, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article examines the motivational consequences of anthropomorphizing the means of goal pursuit. Eight studies show that consumers are more motivated to pursue fitness and academic goals with anthropomorphized (vs. non-anthropomorphized) means because such means elicit a greater sense of companionship and thus stronger beliefs that (a) goal pursuit is enjoyable (perceived enjoyability) and that (b) the goal is attainable (goal expectancy). We first find that participants work out harder when using an anthropomorphized (vs. non-anthropomorphized) treadmill (Study 1) and jump rope (Study 2). We then show that this effect occurs due to a greater sense of companionship, which in turn increases both perceived enjoyability and goal expectancy (sequential mediations; Study 3). We further demonstrate these underlying mechanisms through moderation: the effect attenuates when a human companion is present (Study 4), for means perceived as inherently fun (Study 5), and when self-efficacy is high (Study 6). Study 7 identifies a boundary condition: the effect disappears when the means takes on a supervisor (rather than partner) role. Finally, Study 8 shows the downstream consequence of the effect on subsequent choice of means. These findings contribute to research on motivation and anthropomorphism, with practical implications for marketers and consumers.