Cat and Mouse
The Status of the Surveilled: Hyper Surveillance and Status Attainment among Gangs
John Leverso & Sou Lee
Social Problems, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using a case study of Latino gangs in Chicago over a 15-year period and original data compiled from gang cassette mixtapes, CDs, and DVDs, this research analyzes highly ritualized interactions in public media to investigate how status rituals change over time. Specifically, we focus on how factors external to the gang space, such as hyper-surveillance and enhanced policing techniques, influence status attainment in gangs. To date, research on hyper-surveillance focuses on justice system avoidance and crime rates in hot spots, but largely unaddressed are the consequences on the culture of urban gangs. We find that gangs have normalized and incorporated hyper-surveillance into their interaction rituals. Rather than avoidance, increased surveillance is associated with elevated status both at the individual and gang levels. In addition, due to intensified policing practices, even simple loitering on street corners is now associated with elevated status because of the threat of discovery and sanction. These new status attainment methods are encompassed in what we term the “status of the surveilled.” These results shed light on unique, unintended consequences of hyper-surveillance and enhanced policing in urban areas, as well as how they are incorporated into group processes related to status attainment within the urban street gang.
Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches
Benjamin Feigenberg & Conrad Miller
NBER Working Paper, March 2025
Abstract:
We examine class disparities and discrimination in police searches and stops using data on traffic stops conducted by Texas Highway Patrol. Low-income motorists are more likely to be searched for contraband, less likely to be found with contraband when searched, and more likely to be stopped for infractions associated with pretext stops. We measure class-based discrimination in searches per potential stop, accounting for both the search and stop margins. Our research design leverages motorists stopped in multiple vehicles conveying different class signals. Motorists are more likely to be searched when stopped in a low-status vehicle, and evidence suggests that they are also more likely to be stopped when driving one. Marginal searches triggered by vehicle status are also less likely to yield contraband when the motorist is low-income. We argue that lower hassle costs associated with arrests of low-income motorists help explain trooper behavior.
Searching for a big score: Analyzing drug yield from search warrant executions
Elizabeth Griffiths et al.
Journal of Criminal Justice, March-April 2025
Abstract:
In this study, we investigated the extent to which law enforcement efforts predicted drug and other kinds of illicit yield in search warrant executions. The data are drawn from one major metropolitan police department during 2005, 2009, and 2012. Using multilevel random intercept logistic regression models and multilevel random intercept multinomial logistic regression models, we regress high yields of various kinds of drugs and other illicit items seized during searches on the investigative activities that led to search warrant applications and the enlistment of teams of officers or other agencies in executing the search. Investments in high-effort search warrant work should generate higher yields than would be possible using less intensive law enforcement endeavors; yet our findings show that neither high-effort investigative activities, such as surveillance or controlled buys, nor the mobilization of specialized teams or agencies actually predict drug yield, even when search warrants lead to at least one felony drug arrest. This pattern raises questions about the efficacy of high-effort law enforcement activities and the costs, both financial and symbolic, of drug-related search warrant applications and executions. We discuss these findings in the context of police resources and inefficiencies associated with search warrant activity.
Do Peers Matter in the Police Academy?
Roman Rivera
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, April 2025, Pages 127-164
Abstract:
Increasing underrepresented groups' representation in police departments is a common proposal to reduce aggressive policing. This paper documents the effects of peer composition in the Chicago police academy on officers' future arrests by exploiting the lottery system, which provides exogenous variation in cohort composition. I find that higher shares of peers from groups that police less aggressively, such as female and older officers, reduce all officers' future low-level arrests. Peer race matters by amplifying the effects of gender and age. Overall, the results are most consistent with peers' preferences for less aggressive policing shifting officers' preferences and changing future behavior.
Why Don’t the Police Make Me Feel Safe? Using Black’s Theory of Law to Potentially Extend Current Findings on Crime Victims’ Fear
Shelly McGrath et al.
American Journal of Criminal Justice, April 2025, Pages 181-204
Abstract:
Despite an extensive body of literature centering around the fear of crime, victim fear, especially as it is affected by policing, remains understudied. To fill this research gap, we use National Crime Victimization (NCVS) data to analyze whether and to what extent police can influence fear of crime among violent crime victims, and whether variables inherent within propositions outlined by Black (1976) interact with police effort and actions, including whether an arrest was made in the case, to predict such fear. Findings suggest that few such variables interact with whether an arrest was made, and no variables interact with police effort in impacting victim fear. Specifically, only living in an urban area and renting rather than owning one’s home interact with an arrest being made in one’s case in predicting victim fear such that living in an urban area and having one’s case cleared with an arrest results in greater fear whereas being a renter whose case is cleared with an arrest yields decreased fear. Further, like earlier empirical work, we find that police effort itself increases victim fear while an arrest being made, in and of itself, has no significant effect on victim fear. A deeper analysis into our results and directions for future research are also discussed.
Criminal fragmentation in Mexico
Jane Esberg
Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming
Abstract:
Mexico's war on drugs is increasingly characterized by small, local groups rather than large cartels. This research note introduces new data developed from a narcoblog -- a citizen journalism website -- on more than 450 criminal organizations operating in Mexico between 2009 and 2020. I use the data to test prominent theories of fragmentation, providing suggestive evidence that drug war policies contributed to a more complex conflict: kingpin removals were correlated with the emergence of smaller groups; profit opportunities (in this case, fuel theft) then attracted these organizations to new territories. This research contributes to our understanding of criminal control and informs debates over violence reduction policies.
Licensed Firearm Dealers, ATF Inspection Violations, and the Impact on Local Shootings
Richard Stansfield et al.
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Gun dealers play an important role in preventing the purchase of weapons by prohibited buyers and stemming the flow of guns from legal to illegal markets. Therefore, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) plays a crucial crime prevention role through regulating and inspecting licensed dealers for compliance. The current study assesses the impact of an ATF inspection that reveals noncompliance with federal law on local neighborhood shootings. Through an examination of shootings before and after ATF inspections that occurred between 2015 and 2017, our study reveals a limited impact of inspections on shootings generally. However, in communities characterized by economic disadvantage, gradual declines in shootings are witnessed over time after an inspection is completed. The study discusses the theoretical role that licensed dealers play in local shootings and the importance of supporting key legislative measures to support the ATF regulatory and inspections functions.
Body-worn cameras, police arrests, and bureaucratic discretion: A large-scale causal analysis across the United States
Andrea Headley, Daniel Baker & Inkyu Kang
Public Administration Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Drawing on the literature on bureaucratic discretion, this study conducts a large-scale, nationwide causal analysis of the effects of body-worn cameras (BWC) in the United States (US). It employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DiD) approach using 12 years of panel data (2008–2019) covering 697 local police agencies. The findings indicate that BWC adoption had no significant effect on White arrests but led to an approximately 5.5% decrease in Black arrests. Importantly, the reduction in Black arrests was concentrated in alcohol-related cases, which involve considerable officer discretion, but did not extend to cases categorized as more serious public safety threats, such as violent or property crimes, where officer discretion may be more limited. Meanwhile, there was also a 7.7% increase in White arrests related to weapon offenses, aligning with prior studies that suggest BWCs may serve as a tool for evidence collection. Our findings provide insight into how BWCs have influenced police arrests in the US, advancing beyond previous single-case evaluations.
Restrictive housing for prison rule violators: Specific deterrence or defiance?
John Wooldredge et al.
Journal of Experimental Criminology, March 2025, Pages 153-200
Objectives: To determine whether segregation (restrictive housing/RH) for first-time prison rule violators in Ohio shapes his/her odds of violations thereafter in a manner consistent with specific deterrence or criminogenic effects.
Methods: Four types of propensity score analyses were conducted to assess placement in and length of RH for 14,880 rule violators: Matching without replacement, matching with replacement, propensity score stratification, and inverse probability of treatment weighting. Group differences were also compared using Abadie-Imbens robust standard errors.
Results: Findings were robust across methods. RH placement corresponded with significantly but modestly lower odds of any misconduct within 12 months after release from RH, but effects on more serious offenses (particularly violence) were weak. Longer RH terms corresponded with modestly higher odds of any misconduct.
Strengthening police oversight: The impacts of misconduct investigators on police officer behavior
Andrew Jordan & Taeho Kim
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, forthcoming
Abstract:
We study how civilian complaint investigators affect officer behavior in Chicago. We exploit quasi-random assignment of complaints to supervising investigators and use variation in whether supervisors tend to acquire sworn affidavits that substantiate the complaints. When the assigned investigator opens more investigations through obtaining affidavits, accused officers accumulate fewer complaints in the first three months of the investigation. We find that, prior to a scandal, assignment to high-investigation supervisors causes officers to make more arrests. However, this reverses after the scandal. Our findings suggest that police watchdogs can improve officer behavior in ordinary oversight environments but may backfire in heightened oversight environments.
What Do We Know About Hot Pot Spots? Does Who Owns Matter?
SooHyun O, YongJei Lee & John Eck
Crime & Delinquency, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines how place management practices influence crime distribution at pot shops. We assess whether these practices explain the varying crime levels observed across different pot shops. Using data from Colorado Springs, Colorado, we apply a Poisson distribution to compare expected and actual crime distributions among pot shop owners. Multilevel Poisson regression models are then employed to quantify the extent to which crime variation can be attributed to ownership. Our results indicate that approximately 25% of the variance in crime is attributed to management practices. Importantly, even after controlling for environmental factors surrounding pot shops, place management remains significant. This research highlights the critical role of owners in implementing effective crime prevention strategies at pot shops.
Wait for backup or not? How police officers view their role when responding to an active shooter event
Hunter Martaindale, William Sandel & Pete Blair
Journal of Experimental Criminology, March 2025, Pages 113-126
Methods: Quasi-experimental vignette design with random assignment to 10 vignettes from a universe of 324. The sample consisted of 796 current law enforcement officers from 43 states, which responded to a total of 7394 vignettes. This report utilized a mixed effects logistic model to assess the appropriateness of the hypothetical officer’s actions in responding to an active shooter event.
Results: Respondents were between 14 and 80 times more likely to agree with the hypothetical officer’s decision to immediately enter an active shooter scene when a driving force was present (i.e., ongoing gunfire or injured victims). This agreement varied across models as we explore different interaction effects.